by Glynn Wilson
The race for governor of Alabama is close with just months to go before the June 1 primary, according to a new survey just released by Public Policy Polling out of Raleigh, North Carolina.
Bradley Byrne and Artur Davis are the early leaders, “although both are in pretty close races,” Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said in a press release announcing the results.
According to a survey of 407 likely Democratic primary voters and 457 likely Republican primary voters in Alabama interviewed March 27-29, Davis leads the Democratic field with 38 percent declared support to 28 percent for Ron Sparks and 9 percent for Sam Franklin Thomas.
Davis leads with liberal, moderates, and conservatives alike by margins ranging from 8 to 14 points, according to the survey, although Sparks is ahead 33-29 with white voters.
Davis has the overall lead thanks to a 48-23 advantage with African Americans aligned with the Democratic Party, although there are some warning signs for Davis in the poll. Eighty percent of likely Democratic Party primary voters support the health-care bill that Davis opposed. Only 14 percent said they were against it.
Perhaps because of his position on health-care, there are actually more Democratic voters with an unfavorable than favorable opinion of Davis by a margin of 34-28 percent, according to the survey.
On the Republican side, Byrne and former judge Roy Moore are the early front runners.
Byrne has 27 percent support to Moore’s 23 percent, with Robert Bentley and Kay Ivey tied for third with 10 percent each. Fob James’ son Tim James only shows 9 percent support, up only 1 percent from the last time he ran.
Moore is easily the most popular of the Republican candidates with 48 percent of likely primary voters viewing him favorably, according to this survey, although, “There seems to be a disconnect … between voters liking Moore and choosing to support him,” the researchers conclude.
“It’s early and a lot could change between now and the primary,” Debnam said. “But Davis against Byrne or Moore is the most likely general election match up for now.”
The margin of error for the Democratic survey was plus or minus 4.9 percent. For the Republican survey it was plus or minus 4.6 percent.
Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify, the researchers conclude. Complete results can be found at PublicPolicyPolling.Com.
Responding to the new poll, Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks said in a statement that Davis has peaked, and he now has the momentum heading into the primary on June 1.
“In only a matter of months, a 30-point lead for Artur Davis has shrunk to a 10-point lead,” Sparks said. “There are actually more Democratic voters with an unfavorable than favorable opinion of Davis.”
In August, a poll released by the Davis campaign showed he had a 3-1 favorable to unfavorable rating. Now 34 percent of Democratic voters have an unfavorable view of him, while only 28 percent view him favorably.
“His unfavorable rating will only continue to rise,” Sparks says. “Not only has Davis’ ‘no’ vote on healthcare hurt him, but also his votes to help credit card companies, Big Oil and the banking industry have hurt him. He has voted with Republicans and special interests to cut consumer protections, give tax breaks to large oil and energy companies and line the pockets of banks who profited at the expense of students.”
Sparks has gained on Davis because he has supported affordable healthcare, he has supported students in their fight with the banks, and he represents Democratic principles unlike Artur Davis who continues to vote with Republicans on the issues that matter, Sparks says.
“Artur Davis has peaked because the voters of Alabama understand there are clear differences between us,” Sparks said. “I support affordable healthcare. I support students. I support consumers. When you look at the issues, you realize I’m the only Democrat running in the Democratic primary.”
© 2010, Glynn Wilson. All rights reserved.
