As The Pendulum Swings
June 5th, 2008
Under the Microscope
by Glynn Wilson
TUSCALOOSA, Ala., June 5 – Global warming gave us a break this spring in Alabamaland with plenty of rain and way cooler temps than last year. But the global pendulum is now swinging hard toward summer, and it’s hot as hades in T-Town.
On the national political front, in spite of some hand-wringing over the past few weeks, now that Barack Obama is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, a new poll shows that he holds a six point lead over Republican nominee John McCain. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, according to a CBS poll.
I’m still betting the Yuengling 12-pack that those numbers will grow after the parties hold their conventions this summer and that Obama will win in a landslide in November, especially if Karl Rove is kept on the sidelines.
And it looks like he is being kept on the defensive by the House Judiciary Committee.
Facing pressure from the committee, the Bush Justice Department is now admitting that its Office of Professional Responsibility has launched investigations into accusations of ethics lapses and potentially illegal conduct on the part of the U.S. attorneys offices in Alabama behind the political prosecution of former Alabama Governor Don Siegelman and HealthSouth founder Richard Scrushy.
Read the letter in PDF format here
Then, the pendulum is also swinging down in Montgomery.
Federal prosecutors are no longer seeking stiffer prison sentences for Siegelman or Scrushy, and they are not even bothering to explain why, according to Associated Press reporter Bob Johnson. It makes one curious to know what happened to the cozy relationship between Johnson and U.S. Attorney Louis Franklin, since Franklin has changed his tune and now says he will deal with the appeals case in court, rather than in the press.
Maybe the gag order is still in force that was issued by Attorney General Michael Mukasey, who took over the Justice Department after Alberto Gonzales had to resign last August at about the same time Rove was forced to depart the White House.
Siegelman must be happy with how the pendulum is swinging, now that his prosecutors have filed a motion with the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals asking that their appeals for a longer prison terms be dropped.
“The government has elected not to proceed with its cross-appeal as to either defendant,” the filing says, with no explanation.
Prosecutors End Siegelman, Scrushy Sentence Appeal
Hmmm. I guess all that talking to the press last year just didn’t do as much good as they thought, especially in the face of Chief U.S. Judge Mark Fuller’s oversized hammer that pounded Siegelman on the head for doing some talking of his own. And that is in part the basis of why a bipartisan group of 54 former state attorneys general from across the country have filed a brief with a federal appeals court asking that Siegelman’s conviction be reversed. He was sentenced to extra time for discussing the ethics of the court in public with the press.
Their friend of the court filing on Siegelman’s behalf says the prosecution and sentencing of Siegelman “raised serious First Amendment concerns” and asks the appeals court to overturn Siegelman’s conviction, a ruling legal experts say could come by the end of the year.
“To permit a conviction to stand in the absence of such an explicit quid pro quo” (for Siegelman’s appointment of Scrushy to the hospital board in exchange for a donation to the lottery campaign), the brief states, “would mean that a prosecutor has the power to indict and convict any politician and any donor whenever a donation was made and the politician took an action consistent with the donor’s desire, while aware of said desire.”
Ex-Attorneys General File Brief Suppporting Siegelman
Former New York Attorney General Robert Abrams, one of the authors of the brief, said the conviction of Siegleman, a Democrat, could have “a chilling effect” on democracy and make people afraid to make donations to political campaigns. He said: “The U.S. government cannot punish people for questioning or criticizing the actions of federal officials.”
Now we need to get that message about the pendulum swinging over to King George W. and the boys over at the Homeland Security Department, especially here in Alabama at the state version of same, where the Google Earth-Virtual Alabama system is scanning critics of Bush and the GOP as we write.
It’s hard to find the time and personal space to keep up with the criticism on a daily or weekly basis, especially when it becomes clear that these bastards have now managed to get to the programmer who has helped us keep this site up for the past three years. But no worries. We’re moving to a new server soon where politics and religion don’t matter and the hackers and spammers can’t shut us down again.
With your help, we will endure.
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Tags: Domestic Surveillance, HealthSouth's Richard Scrushy on Trial, Liberty vs. Security
June 5th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
But CBS is not the only poll out there. Herewith today’s poll numbers courtesy Gallup Tracking: Obama 45, McCain 46.
Several other polls show similar numbers, with the candidates within the margin of error, plus or minus 3, so I believe it’s way too early to predict a Democratic landslide in November, five months away.
Presidential candidates traditionally get bumps in the polls following clinching a party nomination and party conventions, a large part of that due to positive media coverage. And, the Obama-Clinton contest has dominated headlines for months now, probably ensuring even more of a bump. And as the first African-American to receive a major party nomination for the presidency, there’s likely a little bit of extra bump.
The question Democrats should be asking themselves right now is, with a sitting Republican president suffering the worst approval ratings of any president in history, why is their presumptive nominee only neck-and-neck with the Republican standard-bearer?
If they become overconfident, always a pitfall in presidential politics, they could very well be in for a rude awakening the morning of November 5. Congress will continue, no doubt, to be in the hands of Democrats after the general election. But the race for the presidency is very much wide open, in my opinion.
June 5th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Of course, but remember, I’m reading something besides polls. Like the tea leaves, I read between the headlines : )
Obama has run the best campaign I’ve ever seen, on TV and on the ground. He’s got the money. McCain’s libel to collapse before this is over. He’s a geezer and a joke…
June 6th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
McCain actually has more money at this point, according to a report I saw yesterday. Who knows how much money he’ll be able to raise for the general election campaign. He’s probably at fundraiser right now.
And, while the opinion of some may be that McCain is a geezer and a joke, that’s not a perception that is widely held, even among Democrats. Most political strategists and pundits, including those favorable to Obama, take him very seriously. Taking him lightly would be, in my opinion, a mistake.
Twelve months ago, McCain’s political obituary was being published by many journalists. With Giuliani and Romney in the race, most thought he was finished. His campaign was nearly broke; he had to lay off most of his staff; the Republican base was supporting other candidates, or so it seemed.
McCain has a lot of liabilities, to be sure. He has a reputation as a hothead. He uses very salty language freely when irritated. He’s the oldest individual ever to run for president. He has flip-flopped on several key issues.
But there’s no reason to suppose, even without the Machiavellian Karl Rove on board, that McCain’s campaign will be anything but well run. The GOP establishment knows they cannot recapture Congress. They will focus most of their money and nearly all their effort on electing McCain.
They are already being handed opportunities to exploit, such as today’s Washington Post, in which the Post pundits fall all over themselves in worship – that’s the best word for it – of Obama. They have a cartoon of Dr. King “dreaming” of Obama, an astonishing trivialization of his “I Have A Dream” speech.
That sort of thing, and more to come from others, will simply ratify the notion that Obama is the candidate of the brie and spinach salad elite, making easy targets for Republican strategists and rightist pundits.
And that doesn’t count things closer to home such as this quote from Obama’s Audacity of Hope, “I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.” In fairness, that quote is taken somewhat out of context, but it’s going to be repeated many times in many venues.
Bottom line, my analysis is that this will be a very intense campaign and it will be no holds barred. Obama and McCain are, on average among the polls, locked in a tight “margin of error” race at this point. As mentioned in my earlier post, McCain’s campaign has barely revved up yet, there have been no debates between the two candidates yet, etc.
Geezer or not, joke or not, McCain cannot be dismissed as having no chance or at a serious disadvantage, at least at this point in time. That could change. But it could well change in the other direction.
And, all of that said, all bets could be off if the discussions between Obama and Clinton last night at her D.C. residence produced an agreement for the dream ticket many Democratic leaders both want and dread at the same time. Won’t happen? Let’s wait and see what Hillary has to say Saturday morning on that.
An Obama-Clinton ticket would be, again in my opinion, much better positioned to beat McCain.