by Glynn Wilson

Consumer confidence in the United States continues to rise out of the doldrums of the Bush recession, according to the latest Gallup poll on the subject.

The confidence of Americans in an improving economy is up compared with December, according to Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, and much improved over the highly negative readings of last fall and late summer, and over the levels found after the recession was announced in 2008 just before President George W. Bush left office.

“Weekly economic confidence remains at its highest level since last spring, showing steadier improvement from October through early January,” Gallup concludes in its analysis of public opinion in the U.S.

Most of the gains in the overall Economic Confidence Index since the summer have occurred in the outlook component, the percentage of Americans who believe the economy is improving minus those saying it is getting worse. Over the same period, consumer perceptions of current economic conditions (the percentage rating them “poor” subtracted from those rating them “excellent” or “good”) have improved by about half as much.

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ANALYSIS
by Glynn Wilson

Consumer confidence is on the rise in the United States, according to the latest Gallup poll on the subject, as President Barack Obama will deliver his State of the Union address to the nation on Tuesday night to deliver a strong economic message sympathetic to a middle class that feels squeezed by stagnant wages at a time of record corporate profits.

The President is expected to make the argument for higher taxes on the wealthy, to propose ways to make college more affordable, to offer new steps on tackling the housing crisis and outline ways to help bring back domestic manufacturing and expand hiring.

With unemployment on the way down and good news from the U.S. automobile industry and the retail sector after a successful holiday season, the general public perception is that the overall U.S. economy is getting better, according to Gallup.

“This seems like good news for the nation’s businesses as well as for U.S. economic confidence in the week ending Jan. 22, improved from the prior week and the best since the week ending May 22, 2011,” Gallup concludes in its analysis.

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Mitt Romney has climbed to a commanding 23-point lead over his nearest competitor among Republican registered voters nationally, according to the latest Gallup poll on the subject.

Romney now has the support of 37 percent of Republicans nationwide, while Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich each have 14 percent and Ron Paul has 12 percent.

“History suggests that Romney is now the probable favorite to win the Republican nomination,” Gallup concludes. “Romney’s current 37 percent support is tied for the highest enjoyed by any Republican candidate in Gallup Daily tracking of Republican preferences so far this election cycle, and marks a 13-percentage-point increase in support from his five-day average that ended Jan. 2, just before the Iowa caucuses.”

As Romney’s support has increased, support for his primary competitors has dropped, according to Gallup.

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by Glynn Wilson

More Americans trust President Barack Obama to influence the direction of the country than the Republicans in Congress. According to the latest Gallup poll on the subject, 46 percent of Americans say they want the president to have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year, while 42 percent said they would rather have the Republicans in Congress calling the shots.

U.S. preferences have been closely divided on this question since early 2011 after Republicans won a majority in the House of Representatives. But President Obama has consistently had a slim advantage, suggesting a real lead for him, according to Gallup.

In general, Democrats want Obama to have more influence and Republicans want the Republicans in Congress to have more influence. Independents are more likely to prefer Obama.

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by Glynn Wilson

The percentage of Americans who identify themselves as independents politically went up in 2011 to 40 percent of the public, the highest percentage Gallup has measured since tracking the issue over the past 60 years.

But contrary to the image portrayed of the public in the mainstream media in the United States, more Americans still identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans. According to Gallup’s latest survey on the subject, 31 percent of Americans say they are Democrats while only 27 percent admit to being Republicans, perhaps because of the pathetic showing of the morons and dingbats making idiots out of themselves so far in the Republican Primary race for president.

Gallup records from 1951-1988 — based on face-to-face interviewing — indicate that the percentage of independents was generally in the low 30 percent range for much of the last half of the 20th century. In recent decades, Gallup has observed a pattern of increased independent identification in the year prior to a presidential election, and a decline in the presidential election year. The only exception to that was in 1992, when independent identification increased from 1991, perhaps the result of President Bush’s high approval ratings in 1991 and Ross Perot’s independent presidential candidacy in 1992.

Democrats Maintain Party Edge

There was a two-point increase in independent identification from 2010 to 2011, from 38 to 40 percent. The increase in independent identification came at the expense of Republican identification, which dropped from 29 percent to 27 percent, while Democratic identification held steady at 31 percent. The net result of those changes is an increase in the Democrats’ advantage in party ID over Republicans, from two points to four points, according to Gallup.

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by Glynn Wilson

The tea party Republican Congress will go down in history, alright – as the worst rated, the most unpopular Congress in history.

A new record-low 11 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, according to the latest survey on the subject, the lowest single rating in Gallup’s history of asking the question since 1974. This earns Congress a 17 percent yearly average for 2011, the lowest annual congressional approval rating in polling history.

This discord in Washington caps off a year in which Congress fought bitterly before reaching a last-minute agreement to lift the debt ceiling, instructing a bipartisan supercommittee to cut more than $1 trillion from federal spending by the end of November. That objective was not reached, and the supercommittee ultimately announced that it could not reach an agreement, and disbanded. Also, this majority-Republican Congress will be known as the “Do Nothing Congress,” for opposing anything and everything President Barack Obama proposed to get the economy moving again.

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by Glynn Wilson

It is now official. Georgia’s New Gingrich is the latest presidential candidate to rise to the top of the heap and then fall from Republican grace, leaving many Republicans wondering if they are ever going to get a credible nominee out of their bruising primary battle.

According to the latest Gallup surveys on the subject, Gingrich is in a 10-day free-fall from the front runner position in the Republican elephant race after enjoying a 15-point lead over Mitt Romney in early December. The race is now virtually tied, with 26 percent of Republican voters favoring Gingrich verses 24 percent for Romney.

“No other single candidate has benefited proportionately more from Gingrich’s 11-point decline over the past 10 days,” Gallup says. “Polling finds slight increases in support for the six remaining major candidates in the race, and to make matters worse for the Republicans, the percent favoring none of the candidates has gone up three points, from 14 to 17 percent.”

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A new Gallup poll shows a significant drop in enthusiasm on the part of Republicans for voting in the 2012 election, a reflection of the lack of a clear front runner and a credible candidate who could challenge President Barack Obama in November.

This is good news for Democrats, who have suffered their own drop in enthusiasm since Obama has not lived up to all the expectations of his promising campaign of progressive hope in 2008.

Republicans’ enthusiasm about voting in the election for president next year has gone down 9 points since September, according to Gallup. Only 49 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, down from 58 percent in September. This narrows the gap between the Republicans and Democrats. Only 44 percent of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, essentially the same percentage as shown in September.

Gallup has found that voting enthusiasm generally relates to the eventual election outcome in midterm and presidential election years. In election years in which one party has a clear advantage on enthusiasm, that party tends to fare better in the midterm elections or win the presidential election.

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Majorities of people in China and America now have a more positive view of the economy in China than the economy in the United States, according to the latest Gallup poll on the subject.

According to recent comments on Facebook, the Chinese people may now be advising their kids not to throw away food, since it could go to feed a poor American family. Some reversal of fortune, eh? Thanks Republicans.

Majorities of Chinese and Americans in 2011 agree now is a bad time to find a job in the city or area where they live — but Americans are more negative, according to Gallup. Seventy-two percent of Americans say it is a bad time to find a job, compared with 56 percent of Chinese.

Chinese are also more positive about the general economic conditions where they live. Eighty percent of Chinese say the economic conditions in communities are getting better, while 5 percent say they are getting worse. This compares with the 48 percent of Americans who say their local economic conditions are getting better, while 43 percent say they are getting worse.

“Here again, Chinese attitudes have been fairly steady,” Gallup concludes, “while Americans’ have been more volatile.”

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