Democrat John Edwards is dropping out of the presidential race on Wednesday, ending a scrappy underdog bid in which he steered his rivals toward progressive ideals while grappling with family hardship that roused voters’ sympathies, according to the Associated Press and other news organizations.

McCain Edges Out Romney in GOP Primary

Hillary Clinton has won the Florida Democratic primary, according to the Associated Press and other news organizations, in an event that drew no campaigning by any of her presidential rivals in part because the state will award no delegates as punishment for moving its primary ahead of Feb. 5.

Clinton Wins Primary but No Delegates

Meanwhile today, John McCain and Mitt Romney squared off in a hard-fought Florida primary, seeking campaign momentum before the race for the Republican presidential nomination turns into a nationwide delegate chase on Feb. 5. But the race is shaping up so close that the talking heads on cable news are making jokes about a possible recount and hanging chads, reminiscent of what happened in Florida in the general election between Bush and Gore in 2000.

Romney, McCain in Tight Florida Race

Ad 1: But in the end, it looks like McCain will edge out Romney, with Giuliani coming in third.

McCain Edges Romney to Win Florida GOP Primary

Time magazine’s Website is reporting that Giuliani will drop out and endorse McCain, and with Hickabee still in, that causes all kinds of problems for Romney. Not a bad thing…

ThePage

Ad 2: Look at the aggregated national polls now. Giuliani has fallen and McCain is surging, while Obama gains on Clinton and Edwards remains flat…

2008 National Republican Presidential Primary

2008 National Democratic Presidential Primary without Gore

Glynn Wilson

Obama to visit Birmingham Sunday

Barack Obama bested Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina primary Saturday night, regaining campaign momentum, according to the Associated Press at least in what the wire service called a “prelude to a Feb. 5 coast-to-coast competition for more than 1,600 Democratic National Convention delegates.”

John Edwards finished a distant third, a sharp setback in the state where he was born and scored a primary victory in his first presidential campaign four years ago. Even so, he vowed to remain in the race, his goal, he said, to “give voice to all those whose voices aren’t being heard.”

AP: Obama Wins in SC, Regaining Momentum

With 99 percent of the precincts reporting, Obama had 295,091 votes, 55 percent, to Clinton’s 141,128 votes, or 27 percent, while Edwards only received 93,552 votes, or 18 percent, according to the Washington Post.

Huckabee Upsets Establishment in GOP Race

Edwards Second Place A Boost, Clinton’s Third A Blow

by Glynn Wilson

File photo by Glynn Wilson

Illinois Senator Barack Obama campaigning in Birmingham last July

If politics is like a series of horse races, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois just ran away with the Kentucky Derby in the first actual vote in the critical presidential race of 2008, taking the Iowa Caucus with 38 percent of a record turnout vote. In one of the best stump speeches in modern times, Obama argued in his Iowa Caucus victory address that it was a historic moment in American political history – and he may be right.

The record turnout among Democrats, especially young Democrats – and far and away more than the Republicans could turn out in a Republican state of white Protestant farmers, ethanol producers and insurance salesmen – could be a good indication of how fired up Democrats are to end the rein of establishment Republicans like George W. Bush.

Former Arkansas Governor and Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee’s Christian populist win among Republicans over rich former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is also a clear indication that Americans are ready for change.

“This is a defining moment in our history. We did what the cynics said we couldn’t do,” Obama said in a confident speech with perfect cadence. “We are one nation, we are one people, and the time for change has come.”

“They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high,” Obama said. “They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to come together around a common purpose.”

Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards’ second place showing at 30 percent gives his populist candidacy a major boost, while former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton’s third place showing with 29 percent should give pause to those who have considered her the run-away front-runner for the past six months, including most of the national media.

Senator John McCain’s low third place finish at 13 percent to Huckabee’s 34 and Romney’s 25 percent, may make it harder for him to make the case in New Hampshire that he is the guy who can beat former New York Mayor Rudi Giuliani, lounging down in sunny Florida, in the fear mongering pro-war, anti-terror campaign.

An estimated record number, 220,000 Democrats and independents, showed up at caucus sites, compared to 124,000 who voted for the Democrat in 2004. By contrast, only about 114,000 Republican voters turned out. The last contested Republican caucuses drew about 88,000 when George W. Bush won in 2000.

The surge of young and independent voters to Obama, as indicated in caucus entrance polls, could suggest he has major crossover strength in a general election campaign.

“The one thing that’s clear with the results in Iowa tonight is the status quo lost and change won,” Edwards said in his speech, which focused largely on attacking poverty and providing health care for all Americans.

Senator Clinton, flanked by her husband and one of the best presidents in American history, Bill Clinton, along with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, congratulated Senator Obama and Edwards, saying the message from Iowa was clear.

“We are going to have change, and that change is going to be a Democratic president in the White House in 2009,” she said, even though from her demeanor, it appeared to dawn on her that she is not the leading change agent in this race.

Whew! Now that we are finally voting and the race is on, Obama proved he is a major threat to the status quo in American politics. He’s by far the best orator in the race, and maybe the best politician with the best campaign team in place with a real chance to go all the way. We’ll see what New Hampshire voters have to say next Tuesday – in the Preakness of American presidential politics.

Text and Video link

It’s a win, place or show bet in Iowa, according to a compilation of all the polls in the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination race in the corn and insurance state. It’s a three-way tie no matter how you look at it.

2008 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus

It’s not going to matter, but we predict a win for Edwards by a nose at the last minute, with Obama coming in a close second and Hillary right behind them in third.

We won’t bet the Yuengling on it, but if I was going to the betting window, I would put all the money on a three-way tie – bet on all three front runners to win, place and show.

Should the Conventions Matter Once Again?

Under the Microscope
by Glynn Wilson

Iowa is a state made up mostly of white Protestant farmers who raise pigs and cows and grow corn, soybeans and oats. It produces more federally subsidized ethanol than any other state – contributing much pollution runoff that ends up in the Mississippi River and causes a Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico.

Des Moines, the state capital, is also full of insurance salesmen. With a population of only 2.9 million people, the state has just seven electoral votes – two less than Alabama.

Is that the kind of people we want making one of the most important early decisions about who will serve as president of the United States for the next four or eight years?

The Iowa caucus vaulted to the head of the political line in the U.S. presidential nomination process in 1972, thanks to a series of articles in the New York Times, according to Wikipedia.

Democratic operative Norma S. Matthews, Iowa co-chair of the George McGovern campaign, is credited with engineering the early January start for Iowa, as the story goes. McGovern finished second to Edmund Muskie in the first early “Hawkeye state” caucus, giving him the momentum to win the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in Miami later in the summer.

But that first famous caucus was held on January 24, not Jan. 3 as it will be this year just two days after the New Year’s Day holiday.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter used his second place finish in Iowa to propel his dark horse candidacy into a win in the New Hampshire primary and ultimately the party’s nomination for president. The Republicans also made the caucus important in 1976, and since then, presidential candidates have increased their focus on winning the little Iowa caucus.

In the months leading up to the 2004 caucus, predictions showed candidates Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean neck-and-neck for first place, with John Kerry and John Edwards far behind. Negative campaign ads attacking each other by the two front runners soured the voters on the leaders, however. With Gephardt’s presidential hopes dashed and Dean’s badly battered, Sen. John Kerry reportedly put all his remaining money in Iowa and swung voters towards him. A strong showing by Sen. John Edwards propelled him into the vice presidential slot, but the ticket ended up not being strong enough to blow away George W. Bush’s bid for a second disastrous term.

This year, with other states moving their party priimaries up to Feb. 5, Iowa did not want to relinquish its importance in the process and moved its caucus to Jan. 3.

And for the past month, the two Democratic Party front runners, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, have been forced to fight it out on the ground in Iowa and largely ignore their important duties on the U.S. Senate floor. Obama has been attacked for missing votes, and well he should be, since only Sen. Chris Dodd showed up of all the candidates to fight a measure to grant immunity to the telecom giants for their role in illegally spying on Americans.

Where do the Democratic Party’s front runners stand on that issue? Voters may never know – thanks to the people of Iowa’s interest in the nativity and distaste in campaign negativity.

Even National Public Radio has questioned the wisdom of this.

NPR: History May Not Help Figure Out Iowa

Most party insiders and media pundits believe the presidential race will be over on Feb. 5 due to the winner take all nature of the delegate system. So, what are the campaigns supposed to do from February to November? That would be the longest political campaign in the history of democracy, and it is likely that the public will grow so sick of it that more and more will not participate in the process. And which party do you think benefits from lower public participation? You guessed it. The corporate and Christian Republicans.

Personally, I hope the early caucuses and primaries result in ties all around, so that the party fight continues into the summer. Wouldn’t it be nice to see the party nominating conventions matter once again?

Due to changes in election laws and the manner in which political campaigns have been run since 1972, the conventions have virtually abdicated their original roles and today act mostly as ceremonial television shows that matter little if at all.

United States presidential nominating convention

Remember 1968 and Chicago? Now those were the days.

Democratic Convention and antiwar riots

Maybe with the disastrous war in Iraq and the stumbling economy – and without a clear-cut winner for the Republicans or the Democrats through the caucus and primary process – perhaps this is the year conventions will matter once again. Imagine both parties being forced to reach out and draft another kind of candidate – maybe Al Gore or Ron Paul.

One can only hope…

The national media is missing the lead on this story. The latest poll shows John Edwards leading ALL the Republican candidates by wider margins than ANY of the other Democrats on the stage…

Edwards vs Giuliani- 53/44
Edwards vs Romney—-59/37
Edwards vs McCain—-52/44
Edwards vs Huckabee–60/35
Average is 56/40

Obama vs Giuliani—52/45
Obama vs Romney—–54/41
Obama vs-McCain—–48/48 a tie
Obama vs Huckabee—55/40
Average is 52+/43.5

Clinton vs Giuliani-51/45
Clinton vs Romney—54/43
Clinton vs McCain—48/50 McCain wins
Clinton vs Huckabee-54/44
Average is 52-/45.5

CNN makes it all about Arkansas Baptist Preacher Mike Huckabee (Wantabe)….

Edwards Leads All Republicans by Wider Margins

It’s been a while since his last video, throwing the rock into the lake, so Mike Gravel is back with a new rap on “Power to the people: Give peace a chance.”

Mike Gravel For President, 2008