National Polling Shows A Landslide Coming for Democrats Nov. 4

by Glynn Wilson

If the presidential election were held today, Alabama would remain red on the national electoral-college map and the state’s nine electoral votes would go to the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin over Barack Obama and Joe Biden, according to the most recent Capital Survey Research Center poll, although more people in Alabama believe Obama will win on Nov. 4.

About 56 percent of those polled in Alabama say they plan to vote for McCain, the Republican, while only 35 percent say that will vote for Obama, the Democrat, while 9 percent are undecided or wouldn’t say, according to the survey of 554 likely voters conducted on Oct. 2, 6, and 7. The survey had a margin of error of 4.2 percent.

When asked who they thought would be elected president, however, 46 percent said Obama, while only 37 percent said McCain. Seventeen percent were undecided on that question.

The support levels for both candidates have not changed much since April of last year. Obama hit his highest peak in October of last year, when 41 percent of likely voters in Alabama said they would vote for him. McCain hit his lowest point last September at 44 percent.

Meanwhile nationally, the aggregated polling at Pollster.com has the Democrat winning in a major landslide with 324 electoral votes to 163 for the Republican.

Key states to recently change, most likely due to the financial crisis, include Colorado (9 electoral votes) and Florida (27 electoral votes), where Obama has now moved out of the margin-of-error range with a lead of about 50-45 percent.

North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada are the only toss-up states now, and McCain could not win the election even if he won them all.

EXCLUSIVE!

by Glynn Wilson

The ailing Reverend Fred Shuttlesworth, one of Birmingham’s most important icons from the Civil Rights days, was ecstatic to hear the news Wednesday that the Democratic Party had nominated Barack Obama as the first African-American standard bearer for any political party in American history.

Bonnie M. Fountain

The Rev. Fred Shuttlesworth

Obama is the first black man to have a really good chance of becoming president of the United States, about 50 years after the struggle for equal rights kicked off in Alabama when Shuttlesworth was still a fairly young man fighting Bull Connor and the Ku Klux Klan in Birmingham.

“Anything is possible in America,” Shuttlesworth said when told the news of Obama’s nomination in Philadelphia, where he will attend his 75-year-old brother Clifton’s funeral Thursday.

“I’m looking forward to Obama rebuilding our nation and our reputation around the world, which is at an all-time low,” he said.

With his health problems of the past year since he suffered a stroke, Shuttlesworth, 86, was not able to travel this week to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado.

But just like Rep. John Lewis of Georgia, one of Martin Luther King’s lieutenants who was interviewed on MSNBC Wednesday, Shuttlesworth reacted emotionally to the moment.

“We need the immediate end to the Iraq war, a sensible health-care plan and a fix for the plunging economy, as well as solutions for our serious problems with education, housing, banking, and the disastrous mortgage situation in this country,” he said. “The world used to look up to us for leadership. We need to regain their trust. I believe Obama is the man for the job.”

Presidential candidate Barack Obama will announce his running mate later today. We are on the e-mail list to find this out as soon as everyone else. And since we are faster than most, we will have the announcement right here as soon as it happens.

If you are not on the list, check back here often throughout the day and hit refresh to find out first.

AP: Obama not ready to name running mate just yet

Presumptive Republican presidential candidate and Senator John McCain maintains a 12 percent lead over Democrat Barack Obama in Alabama, according to Gerald W. Johnson of the Capital Survey Research Center. However, McCain has dropped some 10 points since June while the undecided and other vote increased 10 points.

“The relevant question is where does the undecided vote go?” he asks.

The numbers probably underestimate the Obama vote by 2-4 percent for two reasons, he said. One, cell phone use is heavier for younger and Black A-A voters and just cell phone users are not included in the data and the vote in these categories are primarily Obama. Two, the numbers do not include new registrations which are up for Democrats, including Black and younger voters, and down for Republicans.

Also, he said in a statement, the vote is heavily specified by demographic variables.

“That is, the McCain vote is stronger among voters with higher rates of church attendance, older age, higher income, males and rural residence,” he said. “McCain gets one percent of the Black vote while Obama gets 15 percent of the white vote.”

Read more about it on the Alabama Education Association Website.