Let’s Walk Out on a Stout Limb with Krystal Ball

by Glynn Wilson
Editor and Publisher
LocustFork.Net

They say you can’t predict the outcome of elections this far in advance.

But what THEY don’t know is that here at The Locust Fork, we have a friend named Krystal Ball - and she tends to read between the headlines and develop good sources and comes to us sometimes in a window on the computer screen that looks a lot like a Web browser connected to the Internet.

So right or wrong, as the commander once said about his country, here are her first set of predictions for 2006.

We stand by them with the offer of a stout brew to anyone who challenges them in the comments section and proves to be right.

Here goes.

The scandal involving lobbyist Jack Abramoff is changing the political landscape in the nation’s capital and the Alabama Capitol in ways that the legacy media and the masses do not yet grasp. This will change the political calculus in the Congress even more than the Enron scandal or the Katrina debacle or even the Tom Delay scandal all by itself.

While the pollsters are still predicting that the Republican Party will hold onto a majority in both houses of Congress, and that Gov. Bob Riley is the front runner in the Alabama governor’s race, Krystal Ball says they are wrong.

Prediction One: The Democratic Party will retake a majority in either the U.S. House or Senate, maybe both.

The Democrats only need six seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. While a turn in many races still appears to be a long-shot, just wait until Abramoff testifies about everything he knows on how Republican members of Congress enriched themselves illegally as public officials.

Some of them are going down. Remember, you heard it here first.

Prediction Two: Just from a preliminary investigation into Bob Riley’s own connections to Abramoff, it is reasonable to conclude that he will end up being damaged politically more than anyone yet knows.

Hence:

Prediction Three: There is a much stronger chance than anyone is predicting at this point that Judge Roy Moore will be the Republican nominee for governor of Alabama. He has more support from Alpha and the trial lawyers than I suspected - and his stealth religious vote will be more than the pollsters will ever pick up on the telephone.

Next, while everyone has heard former Gov. Don Siegelman’s plea about a “political prosecution” - for taking money from Richard Scrushy in exchange for a position on the state health board - what no one seems to get yet is that it is true.

In September 2001, George W. Bush appointed Leura Garrett Canary as U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Alabama. Her husband, Bill Canary, has a long history as political fixer for the GOP, especially for the Bushes and, you guessed it, he has strong ties to Karl Rove, Jack Abramoff - and Riley from his days in Congress.

There is more money in them hills than the $1,000 Riley gave to charity this week. The trick will be if any of the newspapers in this state are willing to put up the time and resources to go after it, or whether some new blogger will spend the time to dig out the truth.

Everyone who is anyone knows that political spoils such as positions on health boards are business as usual in Montgomery and Washington. And while it is unfortunate, there really is nothing illegal about it. Unethical, yes, but you don’t go to jail for being an unethical person people can’t trust. You just have less of a chance of winning when you run for office.

So:

Prediction Four: Siegelman will not be convicted and the case may never even get to trial.

That does not mean, however, that he will be the Democratic Party nominee come June 6.

Back in the 1980s, Siegelman was a progressive, pro-environment Democrat. But to get elected in 1998, he sold out to Alabama Power and half the Business Council crowd. When he was not strong enough to sell his lottery plan, his administration basically fell apart - except for continuing to recruit more automobile plants to the state with huge tax breaks that may never pay off and create a big fat ton of suburban sprawl in the process.

So why does he deserve a second chance in the governor’s mansion? Maybe he doesn’t.

Here’s where Krystal Ball gets a bit hazy.

Siegelman has a lot of business support and strong support in the African-American community. But to tell you the truth, his brain is just not that big and he is not the greatest campaigner in the world. Remember last time when he had to wear his arm in a sling from shaking people’s hands?

And he has a chip on his shoulder about the press, which makes it hard for him to do the kind of PR job we are all now familiar with out of Washington.

The critical factor here is whether the “We Love Lucy” Baxley campaign can take off.

She has strong support among state employees, but we have our doubts in other quarters. Krystal Ball gives her a fair chance - if she can raise the level of political dialogue a bit and hammer home some winning issues to eat into Siegelman’s base.

If she could get past Siegelman - and if Jim Folsom Jr. or someone else doesn’t jump into the race (a real possibility) - she might have a chance against Judge Roy Moore with the more moderate religious crowd, considering her strong stance on faith and willingness to talk about it in public. Even the preachers Krystal Ball talks to think Moore is way too radical to be handed the reins of state government.

But it is going to take a stronger platform then she unveiled on Wednesday and a tireless campaign to sell it. Does she have what it takes? Krystal Ball says “wait and see.”

If Siegelman’s case is dropped soon enough, and if he can put together a strong campaign, he could win the nomination. But how would he fare against Riley, if he is not indicted himself, or Judge Roy Moore?

It will literally depend on issues in the news at the time and which base group is more fired up to turn out at the polls.

Heck, it may even depend on the weather. Would someone check the Farmer’s Almanac for June 6, 2006? It ain’t free online and Krystal Ball says it will be “mostly cloudy.”

So what about a straightforward answer to the question: Who will be the next governor of Alabama?

Krystal Ball’s face is looking back at me with a strange expression of doubt. But an image keeps emerging and disappearing. It looks a lot like a piece of paper in the shape of the Ten Commandments.

The odd thing is, it is not carved in stone.

As for the fate of our dick-tater-in-chief in Washington, Krystal Ball sometimes plays evil tricks on us.

The image keeps changing from what appears to be a ranch in Texas to the bars of what look a lot like a jail cell. Could it be that George W. Bush will be the first president in U.S. history to land behind bars?

That may be wishful thinking on the part of Krystal Ball. She tends to be a liberal-tarian, although she seems to like John McCain.

Speaking of McCain, could he be the Republican nominee for president in 2008? Krystall Ball says she is “cautiously optimistic,” although the chances are a bit slim due to the lock-step mentality of today’s Republican Party - dominated as it is by a family named after a shrub.

Glynn Wilson is a veteran reporter, free-lance writer and Net publisher who writes at least one column a week under the titles Under the Microscope or Connecting the Dots. His articles have been published in the New York Times, Christian Science Monitor, Dallas Morning News and many other newspapers and magazines, and his articles, columns and photos are available for syndication.

Tags: Alabama Governor's Race, Elections 2006

This entry was posted on Friday, January 6th, 2006 at 2:47 pm and is filed under Under the Microscope. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.