ANALYSIS
by Glynn Wilson

Seven in 10 Americans say they are more concerned about a nuclear disaster occurring in the United States after the recent catastrophe in Japan, and this includes 39 percent who say they are “a lot more concerned,” according to the latest Gallup poll on the subject.

The results are based on a March 15 USA Today/Gallup poll conducted as Japan struggles to avoid a nuclear meltdown after last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami damaged nuclear power plants there. The poll indicates the catastrophe in Japan may also be diminishing Americans’ support for the use of nuclear power in the U.S.

While 44 percent of Americans still say they favor the development of nuclear power, 47 percent said they are now opposed to “the construction of nuclear power plants in the United States.”

In recent years, Gallup and other polling organizations have usually found more support than opposition for nuclear power. This includes Gallup’s annual Environment survey — conducted March 3-6, before the Japanese earthquake and tsunami — which found 57 percent of Americans saying they strongly or somewhat favor “the use of nuclear energy as one of the ways to provide electricity for the U.S.,” with 38 percent strongly or somewhat opposed. Support peaked at 62 percent last year on this question, which was first asked in 1994, according to Gallup’s analysis.

“Whether the disaster in Japan will have a long-term impact on Americans’ attitudes toward nuclear power as measured by this trend question remains to be seen,” Gallup concludes.

The March 15 poll finds subgroup divisions by gender and politics that are similar to those for other questions Gallup has asked about nuclear power. After the incident in Japan, a majority of men favor the construction of nuclear power plants in the United States, while a majority of women are opposed. And most Republicans are in favor of nuclear power plant construction, while most Democrats are opposed. The poll also finds that support for the construction of nuclear power plants rises with education level.

Americans Say Their Concern About U.S. Tsunami, Earthquake Growing

The poll also finds heightened concern about a major earthquake or tsunami occurring in the U.S. in the wake of the Japanese natural and man-made disaster. Sixty-four percent say they are more concerned about this happening in the U.S., including 25 percent who say they are “a lot more concerned.”

Thus, the events unfolding in Japan have had a greater effect on Americans’ concerns about a nuclear disaster (70 percent more concerned, 39 percent a lot more concerned) than about a natural disaster (64 percent more concerned, 25 percent a lot more concerned).

Implications

The disaster in Japan has precipitated arguably the greatest nuclear crisis the world has seen in more than two decades, since Chernobyl. Americans now say they are more concerned than before the disaster about a similar incident occurring in this country, which in turn has led to an apparent drop in support for nuclear power in the U.S.

“It is not clear, however, what long-term impact the Japanese incident will have on Americans’ support for nuclear power, which has been consistently above a majority and higher than it was a decade ago,” Gallup concludes.

Further Analysis

Due to a large public relations push for more nuclear power plants in the U.S. in recent years, including vocal support from the Obama administration in the effort to move away from the dominant use of oil, gas, coal and other greenhouse gas generating fossil fuels for energy, public antipathy toward nuclear power has been on the wane in recent years. Chances are the lack of a plan for handling the disaster in Japan on the part of the nuclear industry will set back that goal considerably, as this poll indicates.

While nuclear power is a cleaner burning source of energy than oil or coal, the industry has still not come up with a viable long-term method for disposing of the radioactive waste it generates. Plus, as the events in Japan demonstrate, public concern about a major nuclear disaster if something goes wrong appear to be well-founded.

Survey Methods

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted March 15, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Tags: Nuclear Power

This entry was posted on Friday, March 18th, 2011 at 6:23 am and is filed under Environment News, Political News, Public Opinion, Science News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.