But Republicans Seem More Enthusiastic About Voting

Democrats hold a 48 percent to 44 percent advantage for the week of July 19-25 in the Gallup Poll’s tracking of registered voters’ preferences for the 2010 congressional elections. This marks the second straight week in which Democrats have held an edge of at least four percentage points.

Although Republicans have moved to a four-point or higher advantage on three separate occasions, this is the first time either party has held an advantage of that size for two consecutive weeks. Republicans and Democrats have been tied on average across the 21 weeks of Gallup’s tracking.

Republicans continue to be substantially more enthusiastic about voting, however, as they have been since March. Their current 18-point lead in voting enthusiasm is down slightly from last week’s 23-point lead, but it remains slightly higher than the average 16-point lead they have enjoyed since tracking began in March.

Independents continue to be more likely to say they will vote for the Republican rather than the Democratic candidate, an indicator that does not bode well for Democrats.

Both Republicans and Democrats maintain more than 90 percent allegiance for their party’s candidates.

Exactly what is behind the uptick in support for Democrats is not clear, although last week’s gains coincided with the passage of the financial reform bill.

Democrats’ improved position on the generic ballot is counterbalanced by the continuing wide advantage Republicans have in voting enthusiasm, according to Gallup.

“This GOP enthusiasm gap foreshadows a typical Republican turnout advantage in midterm election voting, meaning that Democrats need a substantial lead on the registered voter generic ballot to offset their turnout disadvantage,” the polling outfit says in its analysis of the numbers. “Still, the results show that expectations of an assured Republican landslide in the congressional elections this fall are not a foregone conclusion.”

Gallup’s final generic ballot measure, based on likely voters, has since 1950 closely matched the total percentage of votes cast nationally for Democratic and Republican candidates in all 435 U.S. House races — a statistic that bears a predictable relationship to the number of House seats won by each party.

Gallup does not screen for likely voters until closer to Election Day, but historically, Republicans’ turnout advantage in midterm elections widens the Republican-Democrat gap in the GOP’s favor. Thus, if these numbers held through Election Day, the two parties would likely be closely matched at the ballot box.

In other words, results will vary from race to race and depend on the candidates themselves and their performance, as well as events and issues that dominate the news at the time of voting in November.

We maintain that dramatic shifts in voting behavior are possible, but only when the right tools are employed in the right way. In other words, provocative videos can have an effect, but not if they are idiotic and do not accurately reflect political reality.

Tags: Democrats Maintain Public Opinion Advantage

This entry was posted on Monday, July 26th, 2010 at 4:34 pm and is filed under Alabama Democratic Party, Alabama Politics, Blog Advertising, Elections 2010, GOP Politics, Public Opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.