Don’t Forget to Vote the Day After Memorial Day

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The Big Picture
by Glynn Wilson

It’s been hard to think about routine politics these past few weeks as the news hole has been eaten almost exclusively by BP and Halliburton’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. It has turned out to be a disaster of epic magnitude just like I reported a full month before the mainstream media finally admitted that the Gulf gusher tops Valdez as the worst environmental disaster in US. history.

But there is an election coming up this Tuesday, the day after Memorial Day. And since elections do matter, we need to spend a few minutes talking about the primary race for governor in Alabama, along with a couple of Congressional races.

According to the latest poll from Rasmussen, the Alabama race for governor was too close to call with a week to go. Not sure what moron designed this poll, or just decided what to report about it, but they asked about general election matchups — not primary races. So the poll is only of limited utility at this point.

The main result is sort of interesting, however, in that no candidate in either the Republican or the Democratic Parties are gaining the support from a majority of Alabama voters. It’s pretty easy to see why. There’s no rock star in any election coming up in Alabama. There is no clear, charismatic front runner who could possibly begin to transform Alabama from a good-ole-boy spoils system into a true democratic government built on merit.

Both Democratic hopefuls trail three of the top Republicans in the race, according to a survey of 500 likely Alabama voters interviewed May 25, which is what you would expect in such a conservative, red state — in the absence of a charismatic figure like former Alabama Governor Don Siegelman.

The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence level, so the race is too close to call, but the Republicans do appear to be in a position to hold the governor’s office and potentially take over a majority in the legislature, as we predicted as far back as December, 2008.

Former state senator and two-year college head Bradley Byrne is the Republican who comes closest to the 50 percent mark, according to Rasmussen. In a head-to-head matchup, Byrne leads Birmingham Congressman Artur Davis by 47 percent to 33 percent. Businessman Tim James, the son of former Governor Fob James, leads Davis 45 percent to 39 percent, and state Rep. Robert Bentley also leads Davis 46 percent to 33 percent.

As previous polls have shown, Davis only has a chance of becoming the state’s first black governor if the Republican nominee turns out to be former Judge Roy Moore, although in the most recent poll even Moore tops Davis 43-40 percent.

That’s also about the only race that would generate much in the way of national publicity. If a famous religious nut who was tossed from the state Supreme Court after defying a federal court order to remove his hand-carved granite monument of the Ten Commandments from the building faced off against a conservative black guy who many Democrats have grown to dislike, the national media would open bureaus in Alabama to cover the circus.

That contest would most likely get dangerous, however, so that is not the best matchup for the state’s image. Better to have a boring race than a volatile one in which somebody could get killed.

State Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks also trails in a head-to-head matchup with the top Republican. Byrne tops Sparks by 45 to 32 percent. Bentley holds a similar lead over Sparks, 44 percent to 31 percent. While James holds a more modest 42 percent to 37 percent edge over Sparks, the most recent poll shows Sparks could beat Judge Roy Moore in the general election in November by 45-40 percent.

But the fact is, these numbers don’t amount to a hill of beans at this point. Rasmussen should have asked about the matchup with Davis and Sparks, as well as Republican matchups. As a result of a shortage of public polling outfits in Alabama at this point, we really have no idea who is leading going into the Tuesday election.

Rasmussen can tell us that 16 percent to 24 percent of voters either prefer some other candidate or remain undecided, but what the hell does that mean at this juncture?

Davis is one of the handful of House Democrats who voted against the national health care bill, Rasmussen reports, “but this doesn’t seem to have impacted the race to date despite the high level of opposition to the bill in the state.”

Hasn’t impacted the race?

There is a good chance, according to confidential polls contracted for by candidates themselves, that Davis’s opposition to national health care hurt him significantly among Democrats in Alabama, who are overwhelmingly in favor of the law and the new system. Sparks claims he pushed ahead of Davis for the first time in the race just in the past couple of weeks, in large measure because the news is finally filtering down to voters that Davis is not on their side in the health care fight.

While 67 percent of Alabama voters of both parties may favor repeal of the health care plan passed by congressional Democrats, and only 28 percent oppose repeal of the law, why didn’t Rasmussen break it down between Republicans and Democrats?

Rasmussen tells us that Davis is viewed “Very Favorably” by only 17 percent of Alabama voters, and “Very Unfavorably” by 15 percent, numbers almost identical to Sparks. Except that what Republicans think of Davis or Sparks is irrelevant to the vote on Tuesday.

The Locust Fork News-Journal is not endorsing ANY candidates in Alabama at this point, because like we said, there are no clear rock stars. And you know how much we like rock stars. It’s why we endorsed Barack Obama.

But I will be voting for Ron Sparks on Tuesday as the only Democrat with a chance to beat a Republican in November, and the only Democrat who has been clear about his support of legalizing and taxing gambling in the state.

It is obvious that the state is practically broke at this point and it is high time the conservative, Christian people of Alabama got out of the way and allowed this key source of revenue to flow in the state. Otherwise, there are going to more layoffs of teachers, cops, firemen and the rest, all necessary for any chance of Alabama to improve itself in the country or the world — especially good teachers. This state is in dire need of a better education system. That requires revenue. That’s the bottom line.

I will also be voting for Earl Hilliard Jr. for Congress to replace Artur Davis, perhaps the worst Congressman Alabama has ever sent to Washington. Davis could have been an affirmative action, ivy-league success story. Instead, he sold his soul to the corporate money devil, and as a result, his political career is about to come to an ignominious end.

As for Hilliard’s opponents, Terry Sewell is a plant in the race by Alabama Power and the corporate bar, and Sheila Smoot is a member of the Jefferson County Commission, the most corrupt and inept government in the country that bankrupted the county over the past few years. We’re not sure how anyone could justify voting for ANYONE from the Jefferson County Commission for ANYTHING. Sheila Smoot may not be such a bad person, but like Davis, she refuses to answer questions on the phone, by e-mail or on Facebook.

Hilliard was an attorney in Los Angeles after his graduation from the Howard University School of Law, and then when he came back home to Birmingham, he acted as president of Magic City Films Inc., a budding feature film studio. This experience could greatly benefit the area over the next few years, as we have it on good authority that a Hollywood film outfit is looking to open an interesting new enterprise in this area in the not too distant future.

In Hilliard’s first term in the state Legislature, he was recognized as freshman legislator of the year by the Alabama Democratic Caucus, proving he can work well with all his fellow lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, according to the Tuscaloosa News. “As proof of his broad appeal, Hilliard has been endorsed by a wide spectrum of political organizations, including the Alabama Farmers Federation, the United Mine Workers of America and the National Union of Law Enforcement Agencies.”

So Hilliard gets my vote in the Seventh District.

Now, if you want to get off into the Crazy in Alabama side of the political aisle, take a look at some of the Republicans. None of them interest me — or people around the nation — except for Tim James’ crazy ads saying if he were elected, he would insist the drivers test in Alabama would only be given in English.

Right.

Like that has anything to do with talking about real problems that need solving in this poor, uneducated state.

I’ll give him this, though. At least James knows how to create a provocative ad that grabs peoples’ attention.

If only there was a Democrat in Alabama who could do that, but in a smart way, not just trying to appeal to the dumbest, craziest 20 percent of riled up Tea Baggers and Glenn Beck viewers.

Unless some Democrats figure this out by November, look for a total Republican takeover of the state in 2010.

One other race worth mentioning this time around in Alabama is the Fifth Congressional District race, where Parker Griffith switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in recent months. Insiders say Griffith’s political career is most likely over due to the move. He’s not being embraced by the Republican Party or the Tea Baggers, and the Democrats now loath him.

The candidate who is emerging in that district is Democrat Steve Raby, who has spent years working behind the scenes as a political consultant. He’s collected more campaign support over the last two months than any of his rivals in either party, according to Time magazine and the Huntsville Times.

I’ll be watching the turnout on Tuesday to see if more Republicans or Democrats turn out to vote. On which side is the political anger greatest? Can the Tea Baggers inspire more Republican turnout? Or are the Democrats fired up enough by Obama’s win in 2008 to keep the momentum going here?

We will see on Tuesday. Don’t forget to vote after partying on Memorial Day. Elections do matter.

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Tags: Important Primary Election Tuesday, June 1, Krystal Bal

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 29th, 2010 at 7:02 pm and is filed under The Big Picture. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.