There’s now a story circulating that predicts a major American city without a newspaper within a couple of years.

Can you even be a major city without a daily paper?

A Maine beacon blinks: Portland shaken by warning that its daily could fold

I stick by my prediction from the year 2000, based on some evidence, that the last year for most paper editions to be tossed on porches will be 2019. I’ve already bet a sixpack of Yuengling on it. Or was that Bass Ale?

That’s not to say there won’t be a few. Most major newspaper companies are figuring out the Web more every day. With hand-held digital devices, why would you need the print edition?

I haven’t stained my fingers with newsprint ink on a daily basis since 1994. Haven’t missed it for one second. But that’s me, and millions of others like me.

There are still a few hundred thousand in this country who like ink and paper and are willing to pay a few cents for it. They can have it…

I guess I can see the value to some people of having a copy of the Obama edition due to the history. It may be one of the last newspaper front pages people save in this way.

You better wrap them in plastic. It will be a valuable oddity in 50 or 100 years for sure.

Where’s the evidence for this? I put together a whole bunch of factors in 2000, but I don’t remember them all off the top of my head.

But here’s a hint: The forestry economy will not be sustainable at current levels for more than about seven generations of these pine plantations. Much evidence for this in Europe.

Also consider the cost and toxicity of the ink industry itself.

Then there’s the growing number of people who get news and information digitally vs. in print. Chart the trend line. Can’t see much past 2019. It might level off down in some places awhile longer. But face facts.

The people who read print are a dying breed.

The good news for papers is they are living longer : )