And Then There Were Three, Senate Seats, That Is…
November 11th, 2008Guest Column
by Dwayne Hood
ATLANTA — Three Republican senators are still fighting desperately for reelection in order to deny Democrats a 60-seat filibuster-proof U.S. Senate. But the odds are daunting; one incumbent faces a runoff, another faces a recount and the third may be ousted from the Senate.
The most notable of the three is Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska who was convicted of seven federal corruption charges one week before the election. But despite the convictions, Stevens, 84, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, edged past Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by 3,257 votes. The election will ultimately hinge on more than 50,000 absentee ballots that are being examined and contested by both parties with certification of election results set for Nov. 25.
Stevens, who was named Alaskan of the Century, has funneled billions of dollars of pork projects to the state which enjoys the largest per capita outlay of federal funds in the nation. He still garners widespread support from Alaskans who blame the convictions on a Washington, D.C., jury.
The Republican incumbent was convicted of lying on Senate financial disclosure forms about $250,000 in home renovations performed by an oil contractor. But Stevens denies he has been convicted because he has not yet been sentenced and vows to be exonerated on appeal. He plans to take office for his eighth term in January.
But political observers claim Stevens is suffering from denial because even if he withstands the challenge from Begich, he will still face a possible ouster from Senate members. Law does not prohibit a convicted felon from serving in the Senate but it has never occurred. And Democrats and Republicans alike promise that Stevens will not be the first. It is almost certain they will reach a two-thirds majority needed to remove him from office.
That would present an interesting scenario. Under Alaska law, Governor Sarah Palin would then nominate a successor to Stevens. She could nominate herself or any other Republican she chooses. The candidate would then face possible contenders in a special election. But Palin, a popular governor who has expressed interest in a 2012 presidential run, may get voter support to catapult her into the Senate for much needed federal experience.
In Georgia, Sen. Saxby Chambliss faces a runoff against Democrat Jim Martin on Dec. 2.
Under Georgia law, a runoff is held if the winner cannot get at least 50 percent of the vote. Chambliss led with 49.8 percent of the vote in a bitter three-way race against Martin and Libertarian Allen Buckley.
As a result, both parties are committing more than $5 million in advertising for the runoff and presidential contender John McCain will campaign for Chambliss in Georgia on Nov. 13. Palin is also considering campaign appearances for Chambliss. Martin has asked President-elect Barack Obama to visit but it has not been announced whether he will appear.
Chambliss, who received five student deferments and a medical deferment to avoid military service, won his seat in 2000 largely by questioning the patriotism of former Democratic Sen. Max Cleland who lost both legs and an arm in the Vietnam conflict. Chambliss has been a loyalist to President George W. Bush which has left him vulnerable to Martin’s challenge.
The key to the runoff victory will be voter turnout which is expected to be low for both parties. There is also an effort to attract Libertarian voters who tend to favor Democrats. High ranking Democrats and Republicans are now being drawn to Georgia with millions of dollars in advertising to fight for a seat once considered safely Republican.
In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman is facing a razor thin challenge from former comedian Al Franken.
At last count, Coleman was leading Franken by 204 votes out of more than 2.9 million cast. Coleman declared victory on election night and questioned whether Franken would want to put state taxpayers through a $90,000 vote recount. But Minnesota law requires an automatic recount if the margin of victory is less than one half percent. In this case, the victory margin is less than one-hundredth of a percent. The manual recount with both parties participation is estimated to take one month.
With 57 Senate seats, Democrats admit they may not win all three contested races to reach the 60 seats needed to stop a filibuster. But they are still confident of a filibuster proof Senate on important matters because of moderate Republicans who have crossed party lines in the past.
In any event, the three remaining races show the ferocity of the GOP as they struggle to maintain waning government power left at the end of the 2008 election.
It is now apparent that the Reagan era of conservatism is over.
Dwayne Hood is a former newspaper reporter from Alabama who now spends most of his time in more academic pursuits, although he writes this weekly column exclusively for The Locust Fork News-Journal.
Tags: Al Franken, Democrat Jim Martin, Era of Conservatism, Filibuster-Proof Senate, Governor Sarah Palin, Reagan, Sen. Saxby Chambliss, Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska
November 11th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Nice overview of the situation.
November 11th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
My understanding is that Sarah Palin cannot nominate herself, but she could run for the open seat.
Also, my understanding is that there are over 90,000 ballots left to count in Alaska. It is possible that once those votes are counted that the Democrats (both house and senate) may still end up winning by margins close to the final polls before the election.
November 11th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Thanks for signing in Si : )
I’ve got the open comments shut down because I’m tired of blog spam. I may open it back up on certain issues.
Meanwhile, I’ll have Dwayne check this on Wednesday. He’s not online at night, for now…
November 12th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
This just in from Dwayne:
I heard CNN say Palin could nominate herself. Or the commenter is right, she could simply run for the job. But it seems like it’s splitting hairs with semantics. Either she nominates herself to run or says she’s going to run, the end result is the same. She’s going to run. And anybody who wants to run against her in the special election (Mark Begich) can run also.
As for the ballots, the Anchorage Daily News said on Nov. 5 that there were more than 81,000 ballots and CNN said yesterday that there were more than 50,000. They’re being counted as we type.
I suspect Stevens will win, be thrown out or pressured out next year and Palin will run, nominate herself, coronate herself etc. But Alaskans will vote her into the Senate. I don’t think she’s going to let this opportunity pass her by.
God only knows what’s going to happen in Georgia and Minnesota.
November 12th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Rachel Maddow on MSNBC is where I heard that Palin could not nominate herself. The difference between nominating yourself for the Senate seat and running for the Senate seat is that when you nominate yourself (or anyone) then you fill the position without an election.
From the Daily Kos I got the figure of 90,000+ ballots in the Alaska Senate race. They are broken down as follows (according to Kos):
”
Absentee: 60,950
Early: 9,507
Question: 20,178
Total: 90,635
Today, the state will count 42,991 of the absentee ballots and 9.333 of the early votes…. But election offices are still receiving absentee ballots by mail and questioned ballots, so the true number of outstanding ballots is still unknown.”
November 12th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
I saw the same show. I haven’t spent much time researching this Alaska business myself, since I would just like to go one day without seeing Sarah Palin on TV : )
But my understanding is she might be in a position to nominate someone temporarily, while a required special election is called. It takes a bit of time and money to do that.
If she nominated herself, in my view, it would be one of the most tawdry such appointments ever and would do her more harm than good nationally. Her zany base might stick with her. But that’s about it.
November 12th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
She can nominate someone else but I don’t think that she can nominate herself. I believe that if someone is nominated, then the seat will be up for election again in 2010.
However things are looking up in the current Alaska Senate race. From the Anchorage Daily News:
” It’s just getting started, but early results from this afternoon’s ballot counting in the contest for U.S. Senate show Mark Begich gaining ground against incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens.
The elections division still has tens of thousands of ballots left to count today and even more next week, but the latest numbers show Stevens’ lead is down to 971 votes.
The new numbers, reflecting nearly 28,000 newly counted absentee ballots, are from all over the state. Election night, Stevens led the Democratic Begich by about 3,000 votes.”
November 12th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
MSNBC just stated that Begich is now up by 3 votes as of 7pm CST
November 12th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Wow. Speaking of “too close to call…”
November 13th, 2008 at 12:33 am
Things are trending nicely. At the end of the day the count stands:
Stevens (R) 131,382
Begich (D) 132,196
Begich is now up by 814 votes. There are still 38,000+ votes left to count, but they appear to be in Begich friendly counties. My understanding was that if Begich was to get close by the end of the day, he had a shot. I would say that he is in a very good position but we still have a few days left to go before the count is official.
Meanwhile in GA, things don’t look so good. CW seems to be that the runoff will be a base election and without Obama on the ticket, the dem turnout will be weaker. It has been reported the Chambliss has 5 ads out for every 1 for Martin, that big name republicans are coming over but not much on the democratic side. Most of Chambliss’ ads are created to motivate the republican base (fear fear fear) which they believe is all they need. People are speculating that Obama should not show up and campaign in GA because it would look bad if they lose. The initial election was a 50-47-3 split with the 3 going to the Libertarian, so it is unlikely that those voters would vote for Martin. Maybe we will find out that they are doing community organizing in GA and it is all below the radar, but I think that this is one seat that is not looking good right now.
November 13th, 2008 at 12:50 am
I’m not so sure about the Libertarians. I think Dems have a shot at them. Many are mad at Bush.
And now that we know Obama won the presidential race, that would seem to work in Martin’s favor.
I disagree with the pundits who say Obama shouldn’t go. The guy just won in a landslide! Is he now going to operate running scared, treading softly? I say the situation calls for boldness.
Go to Georgia, Obama, Go!
Plus, he would use the visit to garner good will in all kinds of ways in the South. Why not visit the capital city of the New South now and start courting the people there, and here?
He could do a lot to put the fear to rest being generated by Rush Limbaugh and co.
BTW: From the cable news coverage of Limbaugh’s rants today, looks like he is back! I knew they should have jailed that mofo for his illegal drug addiction. Forgiveness and turning the other cheek doesn’t work with these right-wing Christians. Let them out of the pen and they will still chew the bark off the tree : )
November 13th, 2008 at 10:12 am
I think it would be great if Obama went to Atlanta and filled the Georgia Dome. However, Martin did much better than Obama in GA, so maybe they are afraid of motivating the racist vote.
As far as Limbaugh goes…. he is much better suited to being out of power (as are all Republicans.) They can go off on their whiny paranoid ravings and there is no obvious proof to counteract their buffoonery. However, times are a little different now and I don’t think that they will be able to expand past the base.
November 13th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
From Dwayne via e-mail:
Did you see Palin on CNN last night? She told Wolf Blitzer that she would not “appoint” herself or any member of her family to replace Ted Stevens but she would not promise to serve out her term as governor either. She said her life “is in God’s hands” and she will serve wherever the people of Alaska need her the most.
Isn’t that charming? This woman is crawling all over herself to get this job.
But as of last night, Mark Begich was three votes ahead of Stevens. What a cliffhanger! Let’s see how this one plays out.
Dwayne
November 13th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
I’ve just had a horrible thought. What if Stevens gets reelected and then Bush pardons him? (He pardoned Scooter Libby. Why not Stevens?) Stevens, like Libby, has been around long enough to know where a lot of the GOP skeletons are buried. Facing prison, he could decide to talk.
If Bush pardoned him, there would be no felony conviction to throw him out of the Senate. And I’m sure Bush would cite Stevens’ age as a reason for the pardon. It would also keep a much needed seat in Republican control.
Just a thought……
November 13th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Let’s hope not.
Democrat Takes Lead in Alaska Senate Race
November 13th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
To put to rest whether Sarah Palin could appoint herself or anyone to the senate seat should Stevens win and then get kicked out of the Senate:
“Citizen reaction to former Governor Murkowski appointing his daughter, Lisa, to a vacant Senate seat in 2002 was a 2004 ballot initiative stripping the Governor of this power (56% to 44%).” According to the Alaska Elections website, the 2002 initiative “repeal[s] state law by which the Governor makes a temporary appointment of a person to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy until a special or regular election can be held.”
Under the initiative the seat would remain vacant until the election is certified and the senate meets. Existing law provides that a special election will be held within 60 to 90 days to fill a vacancy unless the vacancy occurs within 60 days of the primary election for that seat. This initiative does not change that provision.
The 2002 explanation continues: “This measure does not authorize appointment of a U.S. Senator.”
Source: Kathy Gill, About.com Guide to US Politics since 2004
November 14th, 2008 at 2:50 am
Puts them TV pundits to shame, eh? Thanks Si…