Republican Rogers Leads Democrat Segall in District 3
August 19th, 2008Mike Rogers, the Republican, holds a 54 to 33 percent lead over Josh Segall, the Democrat, in the race for Congress in District 3, even though Democrats have a marginal lead in political party self-identification, according to the Capital Survey Research Center, the polling arm of the Alabama Education Association, the state’s teachers’ union.
The most important issue to the people in the area is not surprisingly the economy and jobs. The most influential factors in determining the vote are “record/experience” and “honesty/integrity.”
More voters identify themselves as independents and Democrats than Republicans in the district, according to the survey, with 35 percent saying they are independent, 35 percent saying Democrat and only 27 percent reporting themselves as Republicans, a function of national rather than state party identification, according to Gerald Johnson, the poll director.
The survey of 468 “likely voters” was conducted August 13-14 and 18. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
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August 19th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
It would help if Segall had up some campaign signs. I don’t know about elsewhere in D-3 but here in Tallapoosa Co. I have yet to see a single one. Mike Rogers on the other hand has signs at all the usual locations.
August 19th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
One interesting finding in analysis of voters nationwide in 2006 was that, on the issues, somewhere between 14 and 20 percent identified themselves as libertarian. Those numbers come from differing polling organizations, in reponse to surveys with different questions, resulting in the variance.
Although the definition of “libertarian” varies according to source, the general one used by political scientists includes hallmark issues such as a non-interventionist foreign policy; free trade; low taxes; strict adherence to liberties guaranteed by the Bill of Rights and the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments; opposition to regulation of peaceful, voluntary activities by adults which pose no harm or threat of harm to third parties; etc.
For many years Republicans have used libertarian rhetoric as cover for policies diametrically opposed to libertarian values. Almost alone among GOP officeholders, Congressman Ron Paul has consistently upheld these values and pointed out the hypocrisy of the Republican leadership. Their betrayal of what some libertarians call “first principles,” referring to the founding ideals of the American federal republic, has had devastating effects on the country and the world.
If the libertarian bloc, whether 14 percent or 20 percent, were united it could make a significant difference in this and other elections. If even half those voters cast ballots for Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party nominee, not only would it swing electoral votes dramatically (probably in favor of the Democrats) — it would also provide that clarion wake up call that Washington really needs. Any significant challenge to the two-party monopoly would be loud enough for the politicians to hear. Anything other than that will signal business as usual.
But business as usual is likely what we will get, whoever wins the presidency and Congress. There is nothing in recent history to suggest otherwise. Many who have been involved in the world of public policy now acknowledge that real change will not come as a result of politics, but that politics will eventually reflect cultural change going on, as Toynbee characterized it, “under the surface” in the countless millions of interactions of ordinary people.
Polls which ask people whether they are Republicans, Democrats or independents are much like polls which ask people whether they like David Letterman, Britney Spears or Beyonce. In other words, the polls are being entirely subjective since what a Republican or Democrat or independent is or believes is just as elusive as why a particular celebrity is liked or disliked.
If polling organizations could present an objective summary of the “public good” wrought over recent decades by elected politicians of both monopoly parties, likely no one outside the political elite would describe himself or herself as a “Democrat” or “Republican.”
August 19th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
If a Libertarian were running here in the 3rd district they would get my vote. I toyed with the idea of running after the 2006 election but decided to hold off until 2010 and then seek an Alabama House seat. Since no Libertarian is running in my district I’ll be voting for Segall because, having had some direct dealing with Mike Rogers I simply will not cast my vote for him.