Presumptive Republican presidential candidate and Senator John McCain maintains a 12 percent lead over Democrat Barack Obama in Alabama, according to Gerald W. Johnson of the Capital Survey Research Center. However, McCain has dropped some 10 points since June while the undecided and other vote increased 10 points.

“The relevant question is where does the undecided vote go?” he asks.

The numbers probably underestimate the Obama vote by 2-4 percent for two reasons, he said. One, cell phone use is heavier for younger and Black A-A voters and just cell phone users are not included in the data and the vote in these categories are primarily Obama. Two, the numbers do not include new registrations which are up for Democrats, including Black and younger voters, and down for Republicans.

Also, he said in a statement, the vote is heavily specified by demographic variables.

“That is, the McCain vote is stronger among voters with higher rates of church attendance, older age, higher income, males and rural residence,” he said. “McCain gets one percent of the Black vote while Obama gets 15 percent of the white vote.”

Read more about it on the Alabama Education Association Website.

Tags: Barack Obama, Elections 2008, John McCain, Public Opinion

This entry was posted on Friday, August 8th, 2008 at 4:39 pm and is filed under Alabama Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.