And, while the opinion of some may be that McCain is a geezer and a joke, that’s not a perception that is widely held, even among Democrats. Most political strategists and pundits, including those favorable to Obama, take him very seriously. Taking him lightly would be, in my opinion, a mistake.

Twelve months ago, McCain’s political obituary was being published by many journalists. With Giuliani and Romney in the race, most thought he was finished. His campaign was nearly broke; he had to lay off most of his staff; the Republican base was supporting other candidates, or so it seemed.

McCain has a lot of liabilities, to be sure. He has a reputation as a hothead. He uses very salty language freely when irritated. He’s the oldest individual ever to run for president. He has flip-flopped on several key issues.

But there’s no reason to suppose, even without the Machiavellian Karl Rove on board, that McCain’s campaign will be anything but well run. The GOP establishment knows they cannot recapture Congress. They will focus most of their money and nearly all their effort on electing McCain.

They are already being handed opportunities to exploit, such as today’s Washington Post, in which the Post pundits fall all over themselves in worship – that’s the best word for it – of Obama. They have a cartoon of Dr. King “dreaming” of Obama, an astonishing trivialization of his “I Have A Dream” speech.

That sort of thing, and more to come from others, will simply ratify the notion that Obama is the candidate of the brie and spinach salad elite, making easy targets for Republican strategists and rightist pundits.

And that doesn’t count things closer to home such as this quote from Obama’s Audacity of Hope, “I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.” In fairness, that quote is taken somewhat out of context, but it’s going to be repeated many times in many venues.

Bottom line, my analysis is that this will be a very intense campaign and it will be no holds barred. Obama and McCain are, on average among the polls, locked in a tight “margin of error” race at this point. As mentioned in my earlier post, McCain’s campaign has barely revved up yet, there have been no debates between the two candidates yet, etc.

Geezer or not, joke or not, McCain cannot be dismissed as having no chance or at a serious disadvantage, at least at this point in time. That could change. But it could well change in the other direction.

And, all of that said, all bets could be off if the discussions between Obama and Clinton last night at her D.C. residence produced an agreement for the dream ticket many Democratic leaders both want and dread at the same time. Won’t happen? Let’s wait and see what Hillary has to say Saturday morning on that.

An Obama-Clinton ticket would be, again in my opinion, much better positioned to beat McCain.

Obama has run the best campaign I’ve ever seen, on TV and on the ground. He’s got the money. McCain’s libel to collapse before this is over. He’s a geezer and a joke…

Several other polls show similar numbers, with the candidates within the margin of error, plus or minus 3, so I believe it’s way too early to predict a Democratic landslide in November, five months away.

Presidential candidates traditionally get bumps in the polls following clinching a party nomination and party conventions, a large part of that due to positive media coverage. And, the Obama-Clinton contest has dominated headlines for months now, probably ensuring even more of a bump. And as the first African-American to receive a major party nomination for the presidency, there’s likely a little bit of extra bump.

The question Democrats should be asking themselves right now is, with a sitting Republican president suffering the worst approval ratings of any president in history, why is their presumptive nominee only neck-and-neck with the Republican standard-bearer?

If they become overconfident, always a pitfall in presidential politics, they could very well be in for a rude awakening the morning of November 5. Congress will continue, no doubt, to be in the hands of Democrats after the general election. But the race for the presidency is very much wide open, in my opinion.